When Special Elections are Special, and When They're Not

Lessons from a 2011 NY-09 Congressional Election and today's TN-07 Special.

The eyes of much of the political class — in D.C., among the media, and nationwide — are focused on Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election today, and as is often the case, everyone will try to spin and interpret the results of an off year special election toward next year’s midterms.

My home in Tennessee is in the 5^th District next door, but I am close enough to see all the ads, and politically, I’m pretty connected to the campaign for Republican Matt Van Epps. I have a good sense of what’s going on locally in the race.

For those who haven’t been following, Tennessee 7 is a (normally) reliably safe Republican seat. President Trump won the district by 22 points, and the former Republican Congressman, Mark Green, won re-election by 21 points last year before resigning this year to trigger the special election. Both parties had spirited primaries, with Republicans nominating Van Epps, a former Army helicopter pilot and senior official in Governor Bill Lee’s Administration, and Democrats nominating a strong progressive State Rep., Aftyn Behn.

So let’s get to my projection first. I suspect Van Epps will win by mid-to-high single digits...call it six to eight points. Republicans have spent close to $4 million and will just be happy to get another member back in their narrow majority in the house. Republicans will be happy they nominated Van Epps, a mainstream conservative and one of their two best potential nominees, given that a couple of other nominees might have put the seat at greater risk.

Democrats may regret nominating their most progressive candidate – Behn – whose self-described “radical” views on law enforcement, trans children, and hatred for country music may suit other parts of the country, but not this part of the Volunteer State. But having spent about $3 million themselves, they’ll spin that they had no business even being in hunt in such a district, and that this portends an unpopular Trump agenda and dissatisfaction with GOP control of Congress that will inevitably lead to a huge Democratic sweep next year, retaking the House and having an outside chance at the Senate.

So assuming my projection of a mid to high-single digit win for Van Epps is accurate, which of these competing spin stories can we believe, and what lessons can we learn, from this for the 2026 midterms and the body politic at large a year into the 2^nd Trump Presidency?

The dynamics at play include some old and some new ones in politics today. The old dynamic is that the President’s party does poorly in special elections and in midterms, especially in second terms. This is such a truism in American politics that it is noteworthy when it does not happen. By this standard, Democrats overperforming with Trump in the White House isn’t a shock — it’s what the textbooks would lead you to expect.

The new dynamic at play is the flip in which party performs better in low-turnout elections, which has been taking place over the last 10 years – basically since Trump’s first election and the transformation of Republican Party from a college-educated, suburban party to a rural, blue-collar coalition. Tennessee is not much of a mail ballot state – it does have an early voting period – but Trump’s war on voting in any way other than in person on Election Day has an impact as well. This election – a Tuesday after a Thanksgiving weekend – is tailor made for the party which outperforms in low turnout elections, which is now flipped to the Democrats.

The combination of thermostatic midterms and low turnout dynamics have worked together to make this election closer than you’d normally expect. Most polling nationwide also shows an enthusiasm gap for the Democrats over Republicans…they’re in the mood for a fight, and voting “against Trump” is one way to manifest that desire.

Throw that all in the mix and you get a district which is normally a +20 Republican district being in play.

Want a counter example to prove this point? Look back to 2011 in New York’s 9^th Congressional District. It was President Barack Obama in the White House. The district was a solid, safe Democrat seat, which has elected a Democrat for 90 years, and in 2010, Anthony Weiner (D) had beaten Bob Turner by 22 points.

In the wake of Weiner’s “sexting” scandal, the seat was vacant from his resignation, and the overall political environment was rough for Democrats. The economy was weak, and the United States’ relationship with Israel was front of mind. Sound familiar? To complete the analogy, back in 2011, the conventional wisdom (and reality) was still that Republican voters were much more likely to vote in low turnout elections.

The result in NY-9 in 2011? The Republican Bob Turner, running again, beat the Democrat by 5 points for a huge upset, and a 27-point swing from the prior year.

The point here is that you can read too much into strange election results in special elections. As one political newsletter I read said it this morning, special elections are…“special.”

So what lessons can you learn from this election as all political eyes turn to 2026?

1. Republicans have headwinds – no doubt – as is often the case in 6^th years of Presidencies.

2. The shifting coalitions have changed turnout dynamics that are amplified by low turnout special elections.

3. Candidate quality still matters – Republicans nominated a good candidate; Democrats did not – and we might otherwise be talking about an even bigger upset.

4. Republicans’ biggest challenges headed into 2026 are economic unease, thermostatic politics, and motivating the Trump coalition when his name is not on the ballot.

5. Democrats’ biggest threats in 2026 will remain nominating candidates backed by their most enthusiastic, and most progressive, wing and ending up snatching defeat from the jaws of a likely victory.

So watch the Tennessee 7 results tonight, but beware hyperbolic spin from the media and all sides on what this means. What it mostly means is that we’re holding a low turnout election in the late fifth year of a Presidency during uncertain times.