Dueling Ads Reveal Competing Strategies In California’s Prop 50 Campaign

“AOC” vs. “The Governator” in a Battle of Competing Strategies

In the titanic Prop 50 campaign in California (Would suspend the Citizens Redistricting Commission for the rest of the 2020s), dueling ads launched recently tell you everything you need to know about the two sides’ respective strategies and views of the race.

Yes on 50 is out with a 30-second spot, served more on digital than linear TV, featuring Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) urging a Yes vote to “Stop Donald Trump.”

The AOC Yes on 50 ad is a pure base play.

AOC as a primary messenger is not an outreach or persuasion strategy; it is a pure play to the Democratic Party base, aiming to turn them out for an off-year election and get near unanimity among Democrats who will likely be a majority of the turnout in the November special election.

The main No on 50 committee, meanwhile, is up with a spot featuring former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was a leader of the original effort to move California to nonpartisan redistricting, urging voters to “Stop the Politicians” and keep the public in charge of drawing the lines.

No on 50 ad with Schwarzenegger seeks to persuade.

Schwarzenegger, although a Republican, is seen as having cross-party appeal. The last Republican elected to statewide office in California (2006), he won the governor’s office twice in “Blue California” by using his more moderate stances and larger-than-life persona to draw cross-party appeal.

These two ads highlight very different theories on the race, although in each case, the right choices for their respective sides.

The Yes on 50 campaign knows President Trump is widely unpopular among the Democratic base, and with likely low turnout in a special election, and the Democrats more recent advantage among college-educated voters most likely to vote in a special election, their campaign is 100% about motivating and turning out the base.

In a single sentence, their plan is – “Motivate and turn out as many Democrats as we can and we’ll win.”

The No on 50 campaign has to take a different approach, out of necessity.

In a base vs. base election, there’s just not enough Republicans in California to win. And as mentioned, the turnout equation for special elections has flipped in the last 10 years. So "No on 50" needs to hold the Republicans (they will), try to motivate some Independents/No Party Preference voters to care enough to vote and vote “No” (persuasion possible, but turnout is a tough sell), and persuade some Democratic voters to ignore the Trump in the room and vote to keep nonpartisan redistricting, which was overwhelmingly popular with Democrats when first adopted.

The No on 50 campaign is playing the cards they were dealt in a tough campaign, and I find no fault in the strategy (some have questioned the execution), but having to thread three needles to win, and with voting to begin in just 10 days, the smart money is on Yes on 50 at this point.