Four Hot Takes and Lessons from NYC’s Mayoral Primary

And Why They Matter in All Political and Public Affairs Campaigns

Last night’s Democratic primary for New York City Mayor signal both seismic shifts in the political and public affairs landscape AND show that many timeless lessons of politics still hold true. Whether you're center-right, progressive, or something else entirely, there are our four key takeaways and “hot takes” worth noting:

1. The Higher the Profile of a Race, The Less Paid Media Matters

This one won’t surprise anyone who’s knows how campaigns really work, but it’s worth repeating: the more attention a race gets organically, the less paid media matters.

Organic conversations about political and public topics have always played a major role in campaigns. They just used to happen across backyard fences and at office water coolers among dozens of neighbors and co-workers. Now they happen across millions in shared online communities.

Voters know paid political ads for what they are, especially high-information voters in a relatively low primary election turnout. But if that’s the only info they get, for example, on a lower profile election, then paid media can and will drive the narrative.

For a high-profile Mayoral election in America’s most important city, voters had plenty of other places to go to get information. My friend Brent Buchanan posted this morning about findings from GroundTruthAI’s analysis showing Mamdani drove the online conversations and dwarfed Cuomo’s paid media spend.

Paid media has a role, of course. It’s just that your paid media strategy must account for the information space in which it operates. In low information spaces, it can frame the debate and dominate the issue discussion. In higher profile races, the best paid media shapes and funnels and reinforces the conversation already happening rather than trying to redirect to where the voters don’t want to go.

Last night, it was made abundantly clear that tens of millions of dollars could not convince voters that Andrew Cuomo was not the tired, old, establishment politician who felt he deserved to be Mayor by virtue of his last name rather than any compelling case on how he could improve the lives of New Yorkers.

2. Cost of Living Is the Defining Issue of Our Era

This didn’t just dominate the 2024 Presidential election due to high inflation and go away.

Whether it’s the cost of housing, groceries, and just everyday life, the sense that hard work isn’t enough to pay your bills, let alone get ahead, is palpable.

The debate is no longer whether the cost-of-living matters — it’s how to fix it. And the dividing line is becoming clearer:

• Abundance-oriented solutions that unlock supply — new housing, faster permitting, fewer bureaucratic roadblocks.

  
  

• Versus price-control policies like rent caps, minimum wage increases, public ownership, and restrictive zoning, usually dressed in populist packaging.

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The NYC race brought this debate front and center, but you can see it everywhere from Mamdani’s campaign to the so-called “Olympic Wage” ($30 per hour for airport and hospitality workers in Los Angeles). Expect more of this everywhere.

3. Most Voters Believe the Political Establishment Has Failed Them

Last night’s result was a win for the young, anti-establishment left, but Donald’s Trump complete takeover of the old Republican establishment shows this is happening on both sides of the aisle. Voter frustration has led to populism and anti-elitism across the spectrum.

2025’s Andrew Cuomo is 2016’s Jeb Bush. (And I really liked Jeb Bush, he was a phenomenal Governor of Florida, but a lousy candidate for President.)

Being a long-time politician in itself isn’t the disease though; it is the lack of a compelling narrative and issue prescription that does in establishment candidates. The cure is to have thoughtful, fresh ideas on how to address the concerns voters feel in their daily lives, whether you’re an outsider or a long-time elected official.

In New York, the establishment effectively dared the voters to reject a tired, scandal-ridden has-been with no new ideas, and they took that dare.

4. Candidate Quality Still Wins — Especially Authenticity

Mamdani is a very, VERY talented candidate. Andrew Cuomo is NOT. It seems every year we have to relearn this lesson. Candidate quality matters. Repeat after me...Candidate. Quality. Matters.

You don’t have to love or hate Donald Trump to admire his raw abilities as a candidate and preternatural ability to connect with voters, especially his base.

The voters have an inherent, collective BS-meter for the phonies. They reward authenticity, even if they don’t agree with every proposal from the authentic candidate, they give them points for clarity.

Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo tried to reboot his way back into public life with all the wrong ingredients: a dated message, an aura of entitlement, and enough baggage to fill an airport. No matter your ideology, the lesson is universal: be real, or be gone.

Bottom line: shaping the narrative, issue salience, and candidate/issue quality are what break through.

NYC last night was just the latest example — but if you’re watching politics with 2026 and 2028 in mind, don’t miss the signals.

The fundamentals still matter, updated to a new conversation environment.

Voters have a collective wisdom about that and on Election Day, they will let you know what matters.