The Battle Not Fought – Winning A Campaign Without Firing a Shot

How we helped stop a Steamboat Springs Vacancy Tax before it ever reached the ballot

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” – Sun Tzu

Folks who read our content know we often draw from military strategy when we talk about political and public affairs campaigns. The analogies aren’t perfect, but the principles resonate.

This week in Steamboat Springs, Colorado, we lived one of those principles: winning by making the other side’s position collapse under scrutiny – before a ballot measure campaign even began.

Why this story matters

• It shows the right way to apply lessons learned from past campaigns in the current fight.

• It shows again that the details matter on these ballot measures.

• It’s a reminder that a 61%–32% polling advantage can vanish when the policy can’t withstand basic questions.

The setup – momentum, polling, assumptions

Since late last year, all seven members of the Steamboat Springs City Council had – with varying enthusiasm – indicated support for placing a vacancy tax on the ballot. Internal city polling released earlier to build momentum had the idea ahead, 61% to 32%.

Our working assumption: prepare for a full campaign on behalf of our clients at the Altitude REALTORS.

Our approach – research first, coalition early

As we geared up, we focused first on research as always. Early this week we held a planning call with our opinion research team at Cygnal (Brent Buchanan and Chris Lane). They turned that call into a strong first draft questionnaire and asked for edits. In parallel, we began spinning up a local coalition and asked allies to attend Tuesday night’s Council meeting, where final direction to staff to proceed was expected.

The questions that mattered

Coalition speakers pressed the core issues we expected would carry weight with voters – many proven in our 2024 South Lake Tahoe Vacancy Tax win:

• Is a vacancy tax consistent with Steamboat’s welcoming character and economy?

• Has the City managed existing revenues well enough to justify “needing” new taxes?

• How – specifically – will the City enforce a program that monitors the occupancy of roughly 10,000 homes and verifies 183+ days of residency?

Council night – when enforcement met reality

When Council members asked staff to address enforcement and administration, the wheels started wobbling. One staff answer (paraphrased) stood out: a resident might be able to substantiate several days in town with a Saturday grocery receipt and a Wednesday coffee receipt – and “might” get credit for the days in between during an audit if there were no other local receipts.

We took note. Statements like that write themselves into future advertising.

From there, the meeting deteriorated for the tax’s supporters. What looked like a presumed 7–0 to place the measure cratered to a 4–3 vote to abandon the proposal entirely. A Council majority commented, again paraphrasing, that the discussion had helped them realize why Vacancy Taxes weren’t utilized much in the United States...they sound good in principle, but were horrible to administer – for the City and the residents alike!

What worked – and why it collapsed so fast

• Enforcement reality check – Voters instinctively understand that when you put government in the business of monitoring your own homes occupancy, it will be a big, invasive bureaucracy.

• Credibility gap – If staff can’t explain the program cleanly in a meeting, voters won’t trust it in the real world.

• Values friction – The measure conflicted with Steamboat’s identity as a welcoming mountain community.

• Early coalition – Authentic local voices asked simple, fair questions that exposed complexity and risk.

Lessons for campaigns facing 'popular' revenue ideas

• Research, research, research – Start with what you know from past efforts, but test them under current circumstances.

• Pressure-test enforcement – The burden is on the proponents to explain how their proposal will work. Force them to do so.

• Interrogate the math – Ask what the tax actually raises, where it goes, and what the consequences are.

• Lead with local – Equip credible locals to ask practical questions in public meetings, and of course, appear later in advertising.

• Capture the tape – Public meetings often produce the best content for future ads.

The counterfactual – ads we didn’t have to run

Had the measure advanced, the record from Tuesday would have provided ready-made content for a successful campaign. Just imagine ads featuring:

• “Show us your grocery receipts”

• “City Hall can’t explain it, but expect you to live it”

• And on and on...

 

Back to Sun Tzu

Sun Tzu’s line is often paraphrased as: “The best battle is the one you don’t have to fight.”

This week, a fragile idea collapsed under basic scrutiny. Two days later, it’s still striking how quickly eight months of work to impose a ludicrous vacancy tax fell apart. And yes, we told Cygnal: no edits needed. The survey could wait – because we’d already won the fight.