The Fading Faith in the American Dream

And the Implications for Political and Public Affairs Campaigns

When only 20% of Americans still believe in the American Dream – as a recent Wall Street Journal poll reports – we should treat that not as another interesting data point, but as an alarm bell for the republic. Because belief in the American Dream isn’t just about optimism, it’s the cultural operating system that has powered this country for more than two centuries. And when faith in it fades, nearly everything else we debate in politics starts to warp around that loss.

The idea that hard work, responsibility, and perseverance can lead to a better life is what gave our economy its dynamism and our politics its center of gravity. When people believe that success is still within reach, they may disagree on the best policies, but they share a sense of agency – that they have some control over their own future. When that belief collapses, the vacuum gets filled with anger, resentment, and a search for someone – or something – to blame.

This sentiment has real implications for all types of political campaigns and public affairs that we run, and understanding the issues behind it can help guide us to the right strategies and tactics in a challenging issue environment.

The Leftward Drift

For voters already inclined toward progressive politics, losing faith in the American Dream doesn’t make them more pragmatic – it makes them more radical. When people stop believing hard work pays off, they start believing only government mandates can level the playing field. That belief fuels growing support for ideas like permanent rent control, $20 (or higher!) minimum wages, and ever-expanding social programs. These aren’t just policy preferences; they’re emotional responses to hopelessness. They come from the sense that the system is rigged and that the only remedy is to have government force fairness back into it.

The Rightward Reaction

But the collapse of belief cuts both ways. On the right, it manifests not as a call for redistribution but as anger against the institutions themselves. When people who believe they work hard, play by the rules, and still can’t get ahead start to see those “rules” as meaningless, they turn toward populism. They look for leaders who promise not just reform but revenge – who’ll punish the elites they think have stolen the dream.

That’s part of what has fueled the MAGA movement. In fact, it’s in the very name – “Make America Great Again” implies that America is no longer great. And that’s not just ideology. That’s a loss of faith that the traditional paths to success still exist. That’s why the new definition of conservatism has become how angry you are about what’s been lost.

A Crisis of Confidence, Not Just Economics

Both reactions come from the same root: despair about the future. And until we address that deeper crisis of confidence, we’ll keep fighting the same surface battles over wages, housing, taxes, and regulation without ever fixing what’s really broken.

Restoring belief in the American Dream doesn’t mean ignoring inequality or pretending that every playing field is fair. It means rebuilding the pathways that make hard work matter again, good schools that teach practical skills. Attainable housing that is achieved on the supply side. A tax and regulatory system that rewards effort instead of punishing it. A political culture that respects achievement instead of resenting it.

What This Means for Campaigns and Public Affairs

For those of us in politics and public affairs, this crisis of confidence is not an abstract concern, it’s the emotional backdrop of every campaign we run and every issue we fight. Whether we’re opposing a tax increase, defending property rights, or advancing a reform, we are speaking to voters whose faith in the system has been shaken. That reality should shape how we research, message, and execute.

It starts with understanding. In the research phase, we can’t just measure opinions – we have to probe the emotions beneath them: fear about the future, frustration with stagnation, and resentment toward perceived unfairness. These emotions often drive behavior more than facts or ideology.

In the strategy and message phase, we have to construct arcs that acknowledge those fears rather than dismiss them. Voters don’t want to be lectured about economics; they want to be reassured that someone still understands what it feels like to be falling behind despite doing everything right.

And finally, in execution, our tone, messengers, and channels must reflect that empathy. Campaigns that connect on that level – that offer not just arguments, but hope – are the ones that break through.

This crisis of confidence may express itself differently on the left and right, but its presence is universal. Understanding it – and responding to it with authenticity and respect – is great strategy, but it’s more than that. It’s essential if we want to rebuild faith in the American Dream, one campaign and one conversation at a time.