What Clues Will 2025 Elections Give Us Headed into 2026?

It’s Election Day in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City, California, and several other states a localities across the nation. There’s lots of good content out there on what to watch for to draw conclusions from the results tonight and what they may foretell for the 2026 elections.

Here’s my take:

California Prop 50 – Not much to see here. Prop 50 will likely get 60% or more, as we’ve reported for a few weeks. Might be interesting to see how the results track again Newsom’s past election results – 62% for Gov in 2018, 62% against the recall in 2021, and 59% for Gov in 2022. This win will cement Newsom as the early front runner for the Democratic nomination for President in 2028.

Virginia – Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by a comfortable margin and should win by 10 points give or take. Not much news there. Will be interesting to see if Spanberger drags the rest of the Dem ticket across the line, especially the AG race where Democrat Jay “I hope my opponents die” Jones and incumbent GOP AG Jason Miyares are locked in a close race. Most GOP efforts appear focused on getting Miyares across the line to prevent a Democrat sweep.

New Jersey – Although New Jersey lately has perhaps not been as blue as its reputation, it would still be an upset if Republican Jack Ciattarelli pulls off a win despite polls showing a tightening race. Even a close loss here will give GOP some hope that the Trump-induced reordering of blue collar and ethnic voters could endure in a post-Trump world.

New York City – Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani seems poised to win, although some polls show the race tightening. The key indicator may be whether Mamdani gets over 50%, which he will argue is a mandate for his radical agenda. We written this year about the “abundance” vs. “control” argument going on over the nation’s affordability crisis, and New York City is today’s ground zero on that struggle. But it is also a reminder that candidate quality matters, and there is no doubt, issue differences aside, that Zohran Mamdani is a talented campaigner.

Tax Measures – There are a several tax measures around the country we’re watching for clues as to how voters look at new revenues. For us, we watch who is taxed (general taxes vs. “tax the other guys”) and what the money would go to (general government services versus which specific programs funded) to draw conclusions headed into 2026.

Maine – Two statewide measures, one calling for Voter ID at the polls and other conservative election reform proposals, and another increasing the use of “Red Flag” laws challenging “The Pine Tree State’s” pro-gun tradition consistent with it being a largely rural state.

We’ll check back tomorrow for any lessons learned from today’s results as 2026 planning continues.