Much More on the Ballot in California’s Prop 50 than “Nonpartisan” Redistricting

Control of the House of Representatives, Donald Trump’s Presidency, and Gavin Newsom’s Nascent White House Aspirations Are the Many Subplots Beyond the Measure Itself

Across California, tens of millions of voters are now receiving their vote-by-mail ballots for the statewide special election featuring one item – Proposition 50. On its face, Proposition 50 would suspend, for the balance of this decade, the California Citizens’ Redistricting Commission which – since voters approved Proposition 20 in 2010 - draws the lines for Congressional Districts from the Golden State, and adopts new lines drawn by the State Legislature.

But while this one measure is the focus, much more than the relatively arcane process of how California draws Congressional Districts is on the ballot, driving hundreds of millions in spending.

Trump, Newsom, Johnson and Jeffries care a lot about how Californians vote on Prop 50.

Control of the House at Stake

It’s been much discussed that control of the House of Representatives is potentially at stake in this initiative battle. The Prop 50-imposed lines could shift as many as 5 currently held Republican districts from the California Congressional Delegation to Democrats. This alone offsets any advantage Republicans may gain from their redrawing of Texas lines, and with the GOP majority of the House of Representatives at near-record narrow margins, every seat matters.

Donald Trump’s Final Two Years in Office Also at Risk

With the potential flip of the House to Democratic control at stake, the second half of Donald Trump’s final term as President is in the balance as well. The President has been remarkably effective at getting the narrow GOP majority in the House to back his aggressive agenda this year, but all that comes to a grinding halt if Prop 50 helps flip the House back to Democratic majority, however fine the margins.

With Democrats in charge of the House, we’re more likely to see an unprecedented third Trump impeachment by the House than any more significant advancement of his policies. Although Republicans are very likely to retain control of the U.S. Senate, at the very least, Prop 50 could help usher in two years of partisan gridlock.

Gavin Newsom’s Presidential Campaign at Risk As Well

In placing himself in the breach by demanding the Legislature place Prop 50 on the ballot and nationalizing this election, Governor Gavin Newsom has elevated his own nascent Presidential campaign to a major subplot of this ballot measure campaign as well. Win, and Newsom is the Democratic leader who took on Trump and won. He’s already a narrow front-runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2028, and a Prop 50 win would almost surely see that frontrunner status solidified.

But if he loses the Prop 50 fight, Gavin becomes the latest Democrat who tried to take on Trump...and failed. Democrats are desperate for someone to fight Trump and the Republicans, but they want someone who will WIN. If Newsom loses this fight, I’d expect to see his stock among Democrats plummet as they continue their search not just for a fighter, but an effective fighter.

Latest Polling Shows Prop 50 Inching Ahead

As we previously analyzed, the competing campaigns for Yes on 50 and No on 50 are pursuing divergent strategies, with an edge to Democrats so far.

Yes on 50 is running a Democratic partisan election, motivating their base, and counting on the state’s Democratic registration and turnout advantage to get them across the line. No on 50 is counting on a smaller GOP base, and persuasion of independents and a few disaffected Democrats, to get to a majority. As we discussed, in a special election with likely low voter turnout and today’s hyper-partisan environment, odds favor Newsom and the Democrats.

And indeed, fresh polling bears that out, as a recent co/efficient survey for Punchbowl News and other outlets shows Yes on 50 creeping slowly above 50% and now at 54% Yes. Notably, all recent polls show them above the magic 50% threshold. There’s still time for No on 50 to change the story, but with ballots now in voters’ hands, and only a single question before them (meaning voters won’t sit on their ballots), the window is closing quickly.

What to Watch Next

1. Track partisan returns of vote-by-mail ballots. Yes, Paul Mitchell drew the lines in Prop 50 for the Democrats, but Political Data Inc. still has the best ballot return tracking in California.

2. Keep watching the public polling. No on 50’s immediate job is to reverse the trend and get Yes on 50 back below 50%.

3. Watch the positioning of Members of Congress and potential candidates – if they start to pivot toward representing or campaigning for the new lines – that means they’re anticipating and planning for 2026 elections under the Prop 50 lines.